Week 8, 2013: Duration of Unemployment

Summary: The unemployment figures for the fourth quarter of 2012 released today were mostly positive, showing a continuing rise in employment. However, the group of people who have been unemployed for more than 2 years is now larger than either the 12-24 month group or the 6-12 month group for the first time since May 2001.

What does the chart show? The official government figures break down the total number of unemployed people into four groups based on how long they have been unemployed for. This chart shows three of these groups as a percentage of the total number of unemployed people (aged 16 and over), over three month periods ending with the date shown. The blue line shows those who have been unemployed for between 6 and 12 months, the red line those who have been unemployed for between 12 and 24 months, and the green line those who have been unemployed for more than 24 months. The largest group, those unemployed for less than 6 months, is not shown here.

Why is the chart interesting? While unemployment has been falling over the past 14 months, the number of long-term unemployed people has been rising.  In one sense that is not particularly surprising; those who have been out of work the shortest amount of time are generally the easiest to get back into work.  However, we are in a position now that we haven't been in for over a decade, where those who have been unemployed for more than 2 years outnumber the two smaller groups (6-12 months and 12-24 months).  The key difference between now and May 2001 (the last time this happened) is that back then, there were only 216,000 people in this position.  Today, there are 422,000 people who have been unable to find work for more than 2 years.