Q4 GDP estimated 0.5% growth
Tuesday, January 27, 2015 at 1:15PM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '14 GDP: 0.5% (Preliminary Estimate)
Average Prediction: 0.7%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 42/462
Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 121 (5th Jan)
Competition Progress: 11.1% complete
The preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the final quarter of 2014 was announced today to be 0.5%, lower than it had been for the rest of the year. However, yearly growth of 2.6% was still higher than the UK has seen for many years, ensuring that the story of 2014 is still a largely positive one.
The quarterly figure was lower than our average forecast (which was 0.7%), and indeed lower than any of the three Titans forecast at our annual event. John Llewellyn, representing Cambridge, was closest with a prediction of 0.6%, and that pushed him up from 3rd to 2nd place, overtaking Kate Barker who was far too optimistic (forecasting 0.9% growth). Michael McMahon, the current leader in the official competition, was in between the two, with a forecast of 0.7%.
Just over 9% of the public forecasts that we received got this quarter's growth exactly right, with 28% predicting a growth rate of between 0.4% and 0.6%. More people thought growth would be stronger last quarter than weaker (83% compared to 8%). The general trend was for growth to slow down further this year, although very few people thought it would fall much below 0.5% at any point in 2015.
This is just the preliminary estimate, and two further revisions to the estimate will be released over the coming months, which could affect the growth rate in either direction. We will update the competition standings when we hear more.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.