Interest Rates Remain at 0.5%
Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 3:18PM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q1 '15 Interest Rates: 0.5%
Average Prediction: 0.5%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 306/462
Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 121 (5th Jan)
Competition Progress: 25.9% complete
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England voted this morning to keep the base rate at 0.5%, where it has been since March 2009 (keeping the quarterly average for Q1 at 0.5%). This wasn't a great surprise, although at the end of last year there were some people who suggested that we might experience the first rate rises around this point.
Two thirds of our forecasters got this prediction right (including two of our three Titans), 20% of forecasts thought that rates would be raised at some point in Q1, while 13% thought they might be lowered in response to deflationary forces in the economy. Kate Barker (a former member of the MPC) was the only Titan who thought rates might rise early in 2015, mainly due to the distorting effect of the elections in May. Unfortunately, that mistake extends the gap between her and the other two Titans in our official competition.
Our average forecast suggested that rates might start to rise in the next quarter; however, the market expectations are for the Bank of England to stick at 0.5% for at least another year.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.