Q3 GDP Growth Slows to 0.7%
Friday, October 24, 2014 at 9:27AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q3 '14 GDP Growth (Preliminary Estimate): 0.7%
Average Prediction: 0.8%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 57/419
Current S&P 500 High: 2011 (18th September)
Competition Progress: 88.9% complete
GDP growth slowed down very slightly in the third quarter of 2014, with a growth rate of 0.7% (compared to 0.9% in Q2) following small growth in all major sectors of the economy. Recent revisions to the GDP data reveal that output is in fact now 3.4% higher than it was in the pre-recession peak.
The rate of 0.7% was very close to our average forecast, and as you can see from the graph above, the average has been close all year. This quarter marks the first in this year's competition where more people thought growth would be higher than the outcome than thought it would be lower.
In the official competition, both Kevin Daly and Stephen King thought growth would be 0.6% for the second quarter in a row, while Ros Altmann was far more optimistic with a predicted growth rate of 1.2% at this point in the year. This result has cemented Kevin Daly's position in the lead of the competition, and barring any major revisions next month he will be announced as this year's winner.
In the public competition there wasn't much change at the very top, but there was plenty of movement further down the table. There are only three more bits of data due to be released in the competition: the unemployment rate and average earnings growth for Q3 (both on 12th November) and the second estimate of this GDP figure, where it might be revised slightly up or down, on 26th November.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.