Q1 Unemployment Steady at 5.1%
Wednesday, May 18, 2016 at 9:30AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q1 '16 Unemployment: 5.1%
Average Prediction: 5.2%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 92/558
Highest Oil Price: $49 (17th May)
Competition Progress: 42.3% complete
The unemployment rate in the first quarter of the year was 5.1%, the same as the final quarter of 2015, and it has remained broadly stable with only minor fluctuations since the three months to November 2015, when it first reached 5.1%.
Slightly more people correctly forecast the unemployment rate this quarter than last, as general expectations were that it would take a bit longer to reach this level than it did. The average forecast - 5.2% - was slightly higher than the out-turn, with over 60% of entries predicting a rate greater than 5.1%, but exactly half of all forecasts were between 5.0% and 5.2%.
Jonathan Portes (representing Oxford) was once again the only one of our three Titans to get this quarter's unemployment rate exactly right, and this extended his lead in the official competition, although all three were close. Cambridge's Sean Holly forecast was for a rate of 5.2% while LSE's Rain Newton-Smith predicted 5.3%.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.