Q1 GDP Growth of 0.3%

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Q1 '15 GDP (Preliminary Estimate): 0.3%

Average Prediction: 0.7%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 17/462

Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 121 (5th Jan)

Competition Progress: 37.0% complete

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 was estimated today to have been 0.3%, lower than at any point since 2012.  Of the four main sectors, only services grew over the period (by 0.5%), while all the others shrunk.

This was a much lower growth figure than most of our Clash of the Titans forecasters predicted.  The average forecast was 0.7% (the same as last quarter, when it was also too high), and all three Titans were also too optimistic.  The closest once again was John Llewellyn, representing Cambridge, and that helped close the gap between him and Michael McMahon (from LSE) in first place.  They are now separated only by the tie-breaker. Kate Barker (Oxford) remains in third place, and would probably require an earlier than expected increase in the Bank of England base rate to win the competition now.

In the public competition, only 17 people were exactly right, and only 30 thought growth would be 0.3% or lower.  However, almost a quarter of all predictions were between 0.1% and 0.5%, so anyone forecasting within that range did well in this latest update.

As always though with these preliminary estimates, the final figure could be higher or lower, and we'll find out in the next few months what changes (if any) are made.  

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.