GDP grew by 0.7% in Q2
Tuesday, July 28, 2015 at 9:44AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q2 '15 GDP (Preliminary Estimate): 0.7%
Average Prediction: 0.7%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 90/462
Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 126 (7th Jun)
Competition Progress: 63.0% complete
GDP growth recovered in the second quarter of the year after a disappointing first quarter. The preliminary estimate for quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.7%, driven mainly by services, but also by the non-manufacturing part of the production sector (largely mining and quarrying). This is a positive development, and will go a very small way to closing the gap between the services and production sectors.
The average forecast for this quarter was also 0.7% (the first time so far in this year's competition that the average has been exactly right, excluding interest rates), with almost 20% of all entries predicting a 0.7% rate (and more than half forecasting a growth rate between 0.6% and 0.8%). The three Titans were all close, although Kate Barker was the only one to correctly forecast 0.7%, and that has helped to close the gap between them slightly, although LSE's Michael McMahon remains in a strong lead.
However, as always it is worth pointing out that this is only a preliminary estimate, and it may change considerably before the end of the competition. We will have two further official estimates released over the next two months. The last two quarters have both seen (upward) revisions, and we may see another one before the end of the Summer.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.