Q2 GDP Growth Estimated to be 0.8%
Friday, July 25, 2014 at 10:46AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q2 '14 GDP Growth (Preliminary Estimate): 0.8%
Average Prediction: 0.8%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 64/419
Current S&P 500 High: 1988 (24th July)
Competition Progress: 63.0% complete
Gross Domestic Product is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in Q2 2014, for the second quarter running. As predicted, the UK economy has now finally reached the pre-recession peak, making this recession the longest in the last 100 years.
The outcome exactly matched our average forecast of 0.8%, with 40% of all predictions falling between 0.7% and 0.9%. As with last quarter, slightly more of our respondants thought growth would be slower at this point in the year than thought it would be faster. In our official competition, both Kevin Daly and Stephen King forecast a growth rate of 0.6%, while Ros Altmann was far more optimistic, predicting 1.3% growth for the quarter. This has helped Kevin Daly extend his lead in first place, and Stephen has overtaken Ros to claim second place with a third of the competition remaining. It is far closer still than it has been in any of our previous years, so any one of the three could still win it.
It is important to remember that this is still only a preliminary estimate. In theory it may be revised in either direction over the coming months, although over the last year revisions have been very rare. Our first chance to hear whether the 0.8% figure is going to be revised will be on the 15th August. Two days before that, on the 13th, we will also find out about the UK labour market for the second quarter of the year. Back in December, all three main forecasters thought the unemployment rate would fall between 7.3% - 7.5% (that looks a little high now), and there was a lot of disagreement between them on earnings growth. It will be interesting to see how their standings change next month.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.