Q1 Inflation Rises to 2.8%
Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 9:22AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q1 '13 Inflation: 2.8
Average Prediction: 2.6
Number of Correct Forecasts: 14/310
Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 10.15 (28th Jan)
The CPI measure of inflation in March was announced today to be unchanged from February's value of 2.8%. Combined with January's 2.7% figure, the average for the first quarter of 2013 was 2.8%, up 0.1% on last quarter.
The majority of entries in our prediction competition thought inflation would be lower at this point, and our three professors were no exception. Cambridge's Michael Kitson was closest with 2.7%, and that helps him catch up some early lost ground and rises to second place, behind LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki who predicted inflation would be 2.6%. Oxford's Linda Yueh forecast that CPI would be as low as 2.3% in the first quarter of this year, and as a result she drops from first to third place. It remains incredibly close though, and the lead could change hands again when preliminary GDP estimates are released later this month.
Only 14 of our 310 forecasts correctly predicted a CPI figure of 2.8% at this stage, with almost three quarters of the predictions aiming lower, and there has been a lot of change in our public top ten.
The next key figure in the competition is the preliminary estimate of first quarter GDP, due to be released on 25th April. Everyone will be watching to see whether we experience the second consecutive quarter of negative growth that will signal a triple dip recession in the UK (15% of our forecasters think we will).
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.