Q3 Inflation Remains at 2.7%
Tuesday, October 15, 2013 at 9:51AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q3 '13 Inflation: 2.7%
Average Prediction: 2.6%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 23/310
Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 8.13 (22nd May)
CPI inflation over the three months from July to September this year was 2.8%, 2.7% and 2.7% respectively, leading to a quarterly average of 2.7%. Although this is the same average as last quarter, the figures tell a very different story this time. Last quarter, CPI rose from 2.4% in April to 2.9% in June (and looked like they might continue to rise), but instead price rises have slowed down slightly.
This quarter, none of our three professors correctly predicted an average CPI of 2.7% - all three thought it would be lower - but our professorial standings remain the same, with LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki still in the lead entering the final straight (partly helped by his correct prediction of 2.7% last quarter).
Only 23 people correctly forecast back in December that CPI would be at 2.7% by this point in the year, with most people (59%) thinking inflation would be lower; the most popular option was 2.5% (15% of predictions). Our top two in the public competition are unchanged, but it is very close indeed with only a few bits of data still to be revealed.
Our next competition update will be on 25th October, when we find out about the crucial third quarter GDP growth statistics. Our average forecast was 0.4% growth, but with 0.7% growth last quarter outperforming all expectations, we might see the economic optimists rewarded in the competition!
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings. If you think you can do better and are interested in entering next year's competition, you can register your interest here.
For more general information about this year's Clash of the Titans event, click here.