Rising Inflation Throughout Q2
Tuesday, July 16, 2013 at 1:53PM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q2 '13 Inflation: 2.7
Average Prediction: 2.6
Number of Correct Forecasts: 27/310
Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 8.13 (22nd May)
Inflation rose from 2.4% in April to 2.9% in June, averaging 2.7% for the quarter. The two biggest factors pushing prices up over that period were transport costs and the price of clothing and footwear. Despite the new Governor of the Bank of England's statement that they wouldn't be changing interest rates in the near future, if inflation continues to rise at the same speed he may have to do something about it sooner than planned.
LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki was the only one of our three professors to forecast an inflation rate of 2.7% this quarter, and keeps his spot in first place as a result. Cambridge's Michael Kitson was the next closest with a forecast of 2.5%, and that moves him in to a more comfortable second place, with Oxford's Linda Yueh now in third place after she predicted inflation dropping to 2.3%.
26 other entrants also correctly predicted that inflation would be 2.7% this quarter, while the majority of forecasts (60%) thought that it would be lower than that. The most popular response was 2.5%, in line with Professor Kitson's forecast, with 14% of entries making that forecast. There was plenty of change in the overall rankings as a result of this latest update.
The next update to the competition will be on the 25th June, when we get the first estimate of second quarter GDP. This will be fascinating after last quarter's higher than expected GDP growth of 0.3%. Will the economy be able to sustain growth like that for a second quarter in a row, or will it dip back down towards (or past) 0%?
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.