Q4 Inflation Steady at 2.7%
Tuesday, January 15, 2013 at 10:23AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '12 Inflation: 2.7
Average Prediction: 2.5
Number of Correct Forecasts: 29/310
Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 11.23 (7th Jan)
The Consumer Prices Index has remained steady at 2.7% for the past three months (making calculating fourth quarter average inflation particularly easy). This is despite significant upward pressure on household utility bills in December.
Of our three professors in the official Clash of the Titans competition, LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki came closest with a prediction of 2.6%, and he goes into an early lead. Most of our forecasts predicted a lower rate of inflation at this point in the year, with the average being 2.5%; only 29 out of the 310 forecasters correctly predicted an outcome of 2.7%.
There is still a very long way to go in the competition, however, with only two out of sixteen of the data points revealed at this stage. The next key date is the 25th January, when we get a preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP growth. The NIESR have already predicted that we will see a -0.3% fall in GDP, and a negative figure is certainly likely after particularly high growth in the third quarter of last year boosted by the Olympics. However, our average forecast was +0.2%, so there could be some major changes if fourth quarter growth does turn out to be negative.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.