Q4 GDP Preliminary Estimate 0.7%
Tuesday, January 28, 2014 at 1:24PM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '13 GDP: 0.7% (Preliminary Estimate
Average Prediction: 0.8%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 43/419
Current S&P 500 High: 1848 (15th Jan)
Competition Progress: 11.1% complete
The preliminary estimate for Gross Domestic Product growth in the final quarter of 2013 was announced to be 0.7% today, driven largely by an expansion in the services sector (although growth was experienced in agriculture and production, too; only construction shrunk). This result means that we have now had four consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth, leaving the economy 1.3% below the peak of Q1 2008.
This was slightly below our consensus forecast of 0.8%, and lower than all three Titans in our competition predicted. Stephen King was once again closest to the real outcome, predicting a growth rate of 0.8%, and remains in first place as a result. Both Ros Altmann and Kevin Daly thought GDP would grow by 0.9% in Q4 of last year. Just over 10% of our competition entries correctly predicted a rate of 0.7%, while the majority (65%) thought it would be higher (up to a very optimistic maximum prediction of 3.1%).
It is important to stress that this figure is only a preliminary estimate, however, and it may be revised by a couple of points over the next two months. The first revision is scheduled for 26th February; but before that, we will find out about unemployment and earnings on the 19th. Our average prediction for unemployment was 7.5%, but that already looks high, as unemployment for the September to November three month period was reported last week to have fallen to 7.1%.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.