The Clash of the Titans Blog

Entries in GDP (19)

Tuesday
Jan282014

Q4 GDP Preliminary Estimate 0.7%

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Q4 '13 GDP: 0.7% (Preliminary Estimate

Average Prediction: 0.8%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 43/419

Current S&P 500 High: 1848 (15th Jan)

Competition Progress: 11.1% complete

The preliminary estimate for Gross Domestic Product growth in the final quarter of 2013 was announced to be 0.7% today, driven largely by an expansion in the services sector (although growth was experienced in agriculture and production, too; only construction shrunk).  This result means that we have now had four consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth, leaving the economy 1.3% below the peak of Q1 2008.

This was slightly below our consensus forecast of 0.8%, and lower than all three Titans in our competition predicted.  Stephen King was once again closest to the real outcome, predicting a growth rate of 0.8%, and remains in first place as a result.  Both Ros Altmann and Kevin Daly thought GDP would grow by 0.9% in Q4 of last year.  Just over 10% of our competition entries correctly predicted a rate of 0.7%, while the majority (65%) thought it would be higher (up to a very optimistic maximum prediction of 3.1%).

It is important to stress that this figure is only a preliminary estimate, however, and it may be revised by a couple of points over the next two months.  The first revision is scheduled for 26th February; but before that, we will find out about unemployment and earnings on the 19th.  Our average prediction for unemployment was 7.5%, but that already looks high, as unemployment for the September to November three month period was reported last week to have fallen to 7.1%.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.