Preliminary Q4 GDP confirmed at -0.3%
Friday, January 25, 2013 at 11:23AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '12 GDP: -0.3 (Preliminary Estimate)
Average Prediction: +0.2
Number of Correct Forecasts: 4/310
Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 10.37 (22nd Jan)
The UK dipped back into negative GDP growth at the end of 2012, according to the official statistics released by the ONS this morning. Negative quarter-on-quarter growth was largely expected by analysts, as the high growth in the previous quarter had been boosted by the income taken during the Olympics. It was always unlikely that output would again match that level. The question facing economists now though is whether we will experience a triple dip recession next quarter, or whether this quarter of negative growth is a one off.
None of the professors in our official Clash of the Titans competition predicted -0.3%, but Oxford's Linda Yueh was closest with -0.1%. Michael Kitson from Cambridge was also close, predicting 0% growth, and combined with his prediction for inflation earlier in the month, this means that Cambridge have taken a very slender lead over Oxford. LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki was more optimistic regarding GDP, predicting 0.4% growth, and that has seen him drop from first to third place.
Only four of our entrants predicted this exactly right, with most forecasts thinking we would experience very slow, but positive, growth in the fourth quarter of 2012.
It is important to bear in mind that this number is only a preliminary estimate, and will be reviewed by the ONS twice over the next two months. The second estimate is released on the 27th February. But before that, the unemployment numbers for the fourth quarter of last year will be released on the 20th February. The unemployment rate for September-November was 7.7%, so we'd expect something around that area.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.