Preliminary Estimate of Q1 GDP is +0.3%

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Q1 '13 GDP: 0.3% (Preliminary Estimate)

Average Prediction: 0.2

Number of Correct Forecasts: 43/310

Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 11.23 (7th Jan)

According to the preliminary estimate, the UK avoided a triple dip recession last quarter after the ONS announced GDP growth of 0.3%.  This was largely driven by growth in the services sector, and would have been higher if not for a reduction in construction output.  While the cold weather the UK has been experiencing in recent months did have a negative effect on retail sales, this was largely offset by the increase in demand for gas and electricity.

In our official competition, only LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki correctly predicted Q1 GDP growth of 0.3%, and this helps cement his lead.  However, both Oxford's Linda Yueh and Cambridge's Michael Kitson were close behind, with forecasts of 0.2%.  Bearing in mind that this is still only a preliminary estimate which will be revised twice over the next two months (the next estimate is due on the 22nd May), they could still turn out to be right.  

Almost 15% of our competition entrants correctly predicted GDP growth of 0.3% (which is about the same number of people who thought we would experience negative growth leading to an official recession), and there has been plenty of movement in our public competition.

The next milestone in the competition is first quarter unemployment, due out on the 15th May.  The period from December 2012 to February 2013 was 7.9%, up from the previous quarter, so we expect it to be around that number or very slightly higher.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.