Q2 Earnings Growth up to 2.8%
Wednesday, August 12, 2015 at 10:39AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q2 '15 Earnings Growth: 2.8%
Average Prediction: 1.6%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 0/462
Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 126 (7th Jun)
Competition Progress: 70.4% complete
The rate of growth of average earnings has continued to increase much faster than most people thought, with the quarterly rate of 2.8% the fastest since the middle of 2009. Combined with the unemployment rate flattening out, this suggests the labour market is starting to reach its natural capacity before it has an effect on inflation.
Nobody correctly forecast this quarter's earnings growth figure, although two people guessed 2.7% and two guessed 2.9% (and only another two people forecasting a growth rate of 3% or over). The majority of our competition entrants thought that earnings growth would be 1.6% or less at this point in the year, and when you consider how fast the increase in the growth rate has been, that is not too surprising. When we asked people to forecast this figure back in December, the earnings growth rate hadn't been over 1.5% for the last two years.
Our three Titans were not much more accurate on this than the general public, although Kate Barker and Michael McMahon were both equally close, with a predicted growth rate of 2.1%. Combined with the correct unemployment rate forecast, this helped Kate to close the gap with John Llewellyn, and they are now joint second. However, with 70% of the competition results announced, it looks as though Michael McMahon has built up an unassailable lead, and unless there are any major revisions to past figures, we expect that he will win this year's competition for LSE.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.