Q4 Earnings Growth Slows
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 at 11:20AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '15 Earnings Growth: 2.0%
Average Prediction: 2.4%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 29/558
Highest Oil Price: $37 (5th Jan)
Competition Progress: 19.2% complete
After peaking in the second quarter of last year, annual earnings growth has started falling again, reaching just 2% in the last quarter of 2015. Most of the earnings growth we've had over the last two years was in the second half of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015, which means that unless we see another growth spurt soon, this year-on-year figure will continue to decline.
Just a handful of people correctly forecast last quarter's earnings growth rate, with just 15% of all competition entries predicting a rate between 1.8% and 2.2%. The average was higher, at 2.4%, and 60% of predictions thought growth would be 2.5% or above (including all three of our Titans).
Of the three Titans, Dr Sean Holly (representing Cambridge) was the closest with a forecast of 2.5%, while Jonathan Portes predicted 2.8% and Rain Newton-Smith 3%. None of the three were particularly close, but today's labour market updates mean that Jonathan Portes has taken the lead in our official competition, with Sean Holly in second, and Rain Newton-Smith has dropped from first to last place.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.