Q4 Unemployment 7.2%, Earnings Growth 1%
Wednesday, February 19, 2014 at 11:05AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '13 Unemployment Rate: 7.2%
Average Prediction: 7.5%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 9/419
Q4 '13 Average Earnings Growth: 1.0%
Average Prediction: 1.1%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 86/419
Current S&P 500 High: 1848 (15th Jan)
Competition Progress: 18.5% complete
The ONS released their labour market update for Q4 2013 today, and it included both the unemployment rate and average earnings growth. The unemployment rate was 7.2%, up 0.1% on last month's statistics but down 0.4% compared to Q3. Earnings growth (excluding bonuses) for the quarter was 1% on the same quarter in the previous year.
The unemployment rate was well below what was generally expected in our Clash of the Titans competition, with only 9 people getting it exactly right (and there were only 4 further people who thought it would be lower than 7.2%). This included our three official competitors, who generally agreed with the average prediction of 7.5%-7.6%.
Earnings growth was also lower than predicted, but not by much - 1% compared to the average of 1.1%. Far more people got this exactly right: 86 forecasted 1%, and almost half of all forecasts were between 0.9% and 1.1%. Ros Altmann was the closest of our three Titans with a prediction of 1.1%, and that helped bring her back into the pack.
After both of these updates, previous leader Stephen King has dropped to last place in a very tight race, while Kevin Daly has taken the lead. In the public competition, there has also been plenty of change at the top, with only Jeremy Warner remaining in the top three from last time. It is still very close, so expect plenty of changes in the next few months!
The next update for the competition is on 26th February, when the second estimate of GDP is released. The previous estimate of 0.7% might be revised downwards slightly, given that some production statistics over the last month have turned out to be lower than expected.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.