Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.6%

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Q3 '13 Unemployment: 7.6%

Average Prediction: 7.9%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 24/310

Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 7.97 (4th November)

It was announced today that the unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2013, from a rate of 7.8% which had remained steady over the previous four quarters. 

The average forecast was 7.9%, a predicted fall of 0.1% from Q2 (so our forecasters got the direction of movement right, if not the speed).  Only 24 of the 310 forecasts correctly predicted 7.6% this quarter, with the vast majority (70%) thinking it would be higher, although almost a quarter thought it would fall somewhere between 7.5% - 7.7%.  Our professors also followed this pattern; although LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki thought unemployment would be as low as 7.1%, both Oxford's Linda Yueh and Cambridge's Michael Kitson thought it would be considerably higher (8.2% and 9% respectively).

The final data point in the competition will be the second estimate of Q3 GDP, due out on the 27th November.  If it is revised, it could have a big impact at the top of the public standings!  Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.

We'd love for you to take part in next year's competition!  To make sure you don't miss out, please register your interest here.  If you'd like to listen to the experts give their forecasts first, you can find out more about our Clash of the Titans event on the 10th December here.