Q4 Unemployment Rate Down To 5.1%
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 at 11:04AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q4 '15 Unemployment: 5.1%
Average Prediction: 5.2%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 68/558
Highest Oil Price: $37 (5th Jan)
Competition Progress: 15.4% complete
The unemployment rate in the final quarter of 2015 was 5.1%, down from 5.3% in the third quarter and 5.7% in the final quarter of 2014. Although the rate of the fall in unemployment has slowed since last year, it has continued beyond the level at which many economists expected it to stop.
Just over 12% of our competition entries correctly forecast an unemployment rate of 5.1% this quarter, including one of our "Titans". Although the average forecast of 5.2% was very close, many more people thought that unemployment would be higher than thought it would be lower (70% of entries predicted a rate greater than 5.1%).
Jonathan Portes (representing Oxford) was the only Titan to correctly forecast the 5.1% rate for the fourth quarter, with both Sean Holly and Rain Newton-Smith predicting a higher rate of 5.3%. This has pushed Jonathan into the lead in our official competition, overtaking Rain. Looking ahead, Jonathan's forecast is for the unemployment rate to stay at 5.1% for another quarter, and then start to slowly rise again.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.