Q1 Inflation Just 0.1%

Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.

Q1 '15 Inflation: 0.1%

Average Prediction: 1.2%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 1/462

Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 121 (5th Jan)

Competition Progress: 29.6% complete

The annual rate of inflation in March was 0% again (the same as for February), representing no overall change in the price index in the past 12 months.  Combined with the 0.3% rate in January, this meant a 0.1% average for the first quarter of the year - well below what our forecasters predicted at the end of 2014.  There were some signs in this month's data that falling prices of petrol and food (both significant contributers to the recent low inflation figures) were starting to turn around, however.

Only one person in our competition correctly predicted such low inflation (and nobody thought it would be lower than 0.1%), with the average forecast much higher (1.2%).  In fact, only 30% of forecasters predicted a quarterly average rate of less than 1%, which shows that back in December very few people thought we would see such low inflation so soon.

All three Titans in our official competition went too high as well, with Kate Barker and John Llewellyn both going for a rate of 0.9%, and Michael McMahon predicting 1%.  This helped close the gap slightly between the competition leader (McMahon) and the other two, although the overall order remains the same.  However, this was a major update and the public standings changed considerably.

The next significant update in the competition comes at the end of the month (on the 28th), when we get a preliminary estimate for first quarter GDP growth.  The average forecast for that was 0.7%, which is looking very close.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.