Inflation Averaged 0% in Q2
Tuesday, July 14, 2015 at 10:05AM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q2 '15 Inflation: 0.0%
Average Prediction: 1.3%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 1/462
Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 126 (7th June)
Competition Progress: 59.3% complete
It was announced this morning that the CPI rate of inflation in June was 0%, which combined with the 0.1% rate in May and -0.1% rate in April meant that the quarterly average was also 0% (down from 0.1% last quarter). Expectations back in December were for inflation to be low (certainly below the 2% Bank of England target), but very few people thought that price growth in 2015 would be so stagnant. Low food and oil prices continue to contribute to low overall inflation, but this month there were no large upward movements to counter them.
As with last quarter's inflation rate, only one person (out of 462 entries) correctly forecast a rate of 0% this quarter (and it wasn't the same person as last quarter), with one other person forecasting a lower rate of -0.1%. Although the mean average was 1.3%, the most popular choice was 1% for this quarter, with more forecasters thinking inflation would be over 2% than thought it would be under 0.5% by this point in the year.
LSE's Michael McMahon widened his lead in the official competition. Although all three Titans were much too high, Michael's forecast that inflation would reach a trough this quarter (of 0.9%) helped him pull away slightly, and he now looks the firm favourite to win the competition.
The next competition update will be on the 28th of July, when the preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP growth is announced. Everyone will be hoping growth bounces back after a slightly disappointing first quarter of the year. Our Titans' forecasts ranged from 0.6% to 0.7%, with the public average at 0.7%. We'll find out in a fortnight if they were close.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.