Q1 Unemployment 6.8%, Earnings Growth 1.3%
Wednesday, May 14, 2014 at 2:25PM Click here for our Clash of the Titans page.
Q1 '14 Unemployment Rate: 6.8%
Average Prediction: 7.5%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 1/419
Q1 '14 Average Earnings Growth: 1.3%
Average Prediction: 1.4%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 43/419
Current S&P 500 High: 1897 (12th May)
Competition Progress: 44.4% complete
The ONS released their labour market update for Q1 2014 today, and it included both the unemployment rate and average earnings growth. The unemployment rate was an unexpectedly low 6.8%, down from 7.2% last quarter, while average regular earnings grew by 1.3%.
Only one person thought that unemployment would fall to 6.8% in the first quarter of 2014, and their's was the lowest forecast in the competition, which goes to show just how unexpected this decline in unemployment was back in 2013. Only a further 3 people predicted 6.9% - the same number of people who thought it would be over 9%. Our three titans weren't much closer than the average - two forecast 7.4%, while one forecast 7.5%.
Similarly to last quarter, earnings growth was also lower than predicted, but not by much - 1.3% compared to the average of 1.4%. 43 people predicted this exactly right, while over a quarter of forecasts were within at least 0.1%. Our three titans were far too optimistic about this one, but Kevin Daly was closest with a forecast of 1.9%.
There has been plenty of change in the competition standings after these two important updates. Kevin Daly has retaken his place in first (up from last place!), replacing Ros Altmann at the top. All three titans have now taken a turn in the lead, but with over half the competition still to go, there is plenty of time for more change.
The next update for the competition is on 22nd May, when the second estimate of GDP is released. Last quarter, the two revisions produced no changes to the preliminary figure, but it is certainly possible that we might see a small change this time around.
Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.