Q4 Unemployment Rate Remains 7.8%

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Q4 '12 Unemployment: 7.8

Average Prediction: 7.9

Number of Correct Forecasts: 56/310

Current Greek Bond Yield Low: 10.15 (28th Jan)

The official unemployment rate for October to December 2012 was 7.8%, equal to the rate posted in July to September (Q3 '12).  Although the overall rate was the same, there was a slight decrease in actual numbers of unemployed people compared to the previous quarter (although there was actually a slight increase compared to the period of September to November).  The total number of unemployed people (those looking for a job but currently out of work) in the UK is now 2.5m.

LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki was one of 56 people who correctly predicted that unemployment rates would stay the same in the fourth quarter of 2012, and he moves up into second place as a result.  Oxford's Linda Yueh was next closest with a prediction of 8.1% (and is now in first, thanks to her superior tie-breaker score over Professor Ilzetzki).  The previous frontrunner, Cambridge's Michael Kitson, predicted it would rise to 8.3%, and has dropped into last place.  It is all still very close though!

Almost a fifth of the competition entrants forecast this number correctly, with 139 out of the 310 thinking it would fall between 7.7% and 7.9%.  There were more people who thought it would be 8% or higher than those who thought it would be lower than 7.7%, with the highest forecast being a very pessimistic 9.5%.

The next important date in the competition is the 27th February, when the ONS release the second estimate of GDP from last quarter.  It was previously -0.3%, but could easily be shifted by around 0.2 percentage points in either direction, so there is plenty of potential for movement in the competition standings.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.