Q3 GDP Preliminary Estimate 0.5%

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Q2 '16 GDP Growth: 0.6% (Preliminary estimate)
Average Prediction: 0.6%
Number of Correct Forecasts: 132/558
Highest Oil Price: $53 (8th Jun)
Competition Progress: 65.4% complete

The preliminary estimate suggests that the GDP growth rate bounced back to 0.6% in the second quarter of the year, led by a 2.1% increase in the production sector (after two successive quarters of negative growth in that sector), as well as continued steady growth in the service sector.

Our average prediction was exactly right this quarter, with just under 25% of all entries submitting the correct forecast (and almost 60% forecast a rate between 0.5% and 0.7%).  Slightly more people thought it would be below 0.6% than above it, but those who did forecast a higher rate generally thought it would be much higher.

None of our three Titans correctly forecast GDP growth this quarter, although Sean Holly and Rain Newton-Smith were both close with their predictions of 0.7%.  Meanwhile, Jonathan Portes, who had previously been the closest on GDP growth, was too pessimistic with a forecast of 0.3%. These results have boosted Sean Holly's lead in the official competition, but what happens in the third quarter of the year will have big implications for the final standings.

As always with preliminary estimates, this figure may change considerably over the next couple of months, and if it does this will have an effect on the Clash of the Titans forecasting competition standings (a downwards revision in particular could make a big difference to the competition between the two leading Titans).

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.