Q1 Unemployment Rate Falls to 5.5%

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Q1 '15 Unemployment: 5.5%

Average Prediction: 5.8%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 41/462

Weakest Yen to Dollar Rate: 121 (5th Jan)

Competition Progress: 40.7% complete

The unemployment rate for the first quarter of the year was announced as 5.5% this morning, compared to 5.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. This was the smallest quarterly fall in unemployment since the middle of 2013, which perhaps reflects the fact that the improvements in the labour market are beginning to peak.

Just under 10% of our forecasters correctly predicted this rate of unemployment back in December, with the average forecast at 5.8% (bear in mind that the unemployment rate at the time of the forecasts was 6%). 87% of competition entries predicted a rate between 5% and 6%, but most were in the upper half of that range.

Michael McMahon (LSE) and Kate Barker (Oxford) were both closer than the average forecast again, with predictions of 5.7%, while John Llewellyn (Cambridge) forecast 5.8%.  This meant that Michael McMahon extended his lead slightly, while Kate Barker closed the gap between 2nd and 3rd place in the official Titans' competition. Unless there is a major shock, it now looks like Kate Barker will continue to be closest on unemployment out of the three Titans for the rest of the competition.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.