Q1 GDP Growth Drops to 0.4%

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Q1 '16 GDP Growth: 0.4% (Preliminary Estimate)

Average Prediction: 0.6%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 82/558

Highest Oil Price: $46 (20th April)

Competition Progress: 38.5% complete

The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of the year fell to 0.4% (down from 0.6% for the last quarter of 2015).  The service sector grew by 0.6%, but the rest of the economy (production, agriculture, and construction) shrunk, pulling the overall rate down.

15% of competition entries correctly predicted a growth rate of 0.4% this quarter - including our Titan representing Oxford, Jonathan Portes - and almost half of all forecasts were between 0.3% and 0.5%. However, after being spot on last quarter, our average forecast was too high this time, and the prediction of a growth rate between 0.5% and 0.6% for the next two quarters also looks too optimistic at this point.

Jonathan's correct forecast helped increase his lead in the official Titans' competition, opening up the gap with Dr Sean Holly (Cambridge) in second and Rain Newton-Smith (LSE) in third.  Looking ahead, both Sean and Rain were more positive than the average forecast, while Jonathan was more pessimistic, predicting that the growth rate will continue to fall to 0.3% in the next two quarters.

This is, however, only a preliminary estimate, and the final growth rate may be revised over the next couple of months (the fourth quarter figure ended up being revised upwards from 0.5% to 0.6%).  Any revision, but particularly an upwards one, will have a big effect on the competition standings.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.