Q1 Earnings Growth 2.1%

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Q1 '16 Earnings Growth: 2.1%

Average Prediction: 2.5%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 23/558

Highest Oil Price: $49 (17th May)

Competition Progress: 46.2% complete

The decline in earnings growth halted in the first quarter of the year, as average regular earnings grew by 2.1% (compared to 2.0% in the last quarter of last year).  Having said that, March 2016 was the first month since November 2014 in which weekly average earnings fell compared to the previous month, so today's figure is not a great signal of strength.

Even fewer people correctly predicted this quarter's growth rate than last quarter's, and less than a quarter of all forecasts were within the 1.9% - 2.3% range.  The general consensus at the end of last year, when the predictions were made, was that earnings growth would remain steady at just under 2.5% year-on-year.  

That was certainly the opinion of Dr Sean Holly, our "Titan" representing Cambridge in the competition, who was the closest of the three official competitors this quarter.  This result means that he has closed the gap slightly with first-placed Jonathan Portes, with just two points between them almost halfway through the competition.  LSE's Rain Newton-Smith was far more optimistic about earnings growth, forecasting a rate of 3.3% in the first quarter, and this has seriously hurt her chances of catching up with the front two.

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.