Preliminary Estimate of Q1 GDP up by 0.8%

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Q1 '14 GDP Growth (Preliminary Estimate): 0.8%

Average Prediction: 0.7%

Number of Correct Forecasts: 60/419

Current S&P 500 High: 1891 (2nd April)

Competition Progress: 37% complete

Gross Domestic Product growth picked up slightly to 0.8% in the first quarter of 2014, preliminary estimates suggest, despite a 0.7% drop in agriculture output.  Services, production and construction all grew, with total GDP up 3.1% on the same time last year after an impressive year of growth.  

The 0.8% figure was only slightly higher than the 0.7% average forecast in our Clash of the Titans competition, with plenty of people getting it exactly right.  65% of our forecasts thought it would fall between 0.6% and 1%, with slightly more people thinking growth would be slower than thought it would be faster at this point in the year.

In the official competition between our three Titans, Stephen King has overtaken Ros Altmann in first place, although it couldn't be any closer with all three on the same number of points (separated only by the tie-breaker).

However, this is only a preliminary estimate, and it may be revised up or down over the next couple of months.  The second estimate is due out on the 22nd May.  However, before that, unemployment and average earnings for Q1 will be released on the 14th May, which could have quite a big effect on the competition standings.  The average forecast for unemployment was 7.5%, but with Q4 falling to 7.4% and preliminary indicators in January and February suggesting it has fallen further since, this now looks much too high.  

Click here for a summary of the results so far, or here for the full standings.