Cambridge win Clash of the Titans III
Thursday, November 13, 2014 at 2:50PM Kevin Daly, Senior Economist at Goldman Sachs and Cambridge graduate, has won the third annual Clash of the Titans forecasting competition, finishing ahead of Oxford's Stephen King and LSE's Ros Altmann.
Kevin largely won the competition on the strength of his earnings forecast, which was only significantly out for Q1 '14, although he was also exactly right with his interest rate prediction. Both Altmann and King were far too optimistic about earnings growth, and that was what ultimately lost them points (even though Ros Altmann was closer than the others on unemployment, and Stephen King was the best on GDP growth).
The winning forecasts:
| Q4 '13 | Q1 '14 | Q2 '14 | Q3 '14 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Inflation | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Interest Rates | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average Earnings | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| S&P 500 High | 1925 | |||
This is the first time that Cambridge have won the competition. Oxford's John Muellbauer won the inaugural competition in 2011, before LSE's Ethan Ilzetzki won it last year. This means that all three universities have now won it once each. Click here to read more about the previous winners.
The public competition is not yet over, as any revision to the third quarter GDP figure could have an impact on the final standings. To see the current standings, click here.
On the 18th December, the Economic Research Council are inviting three prestigious alumni to represent the three universities in the fourth annual Clash of the Titans competition. Will Cambridge manage to be the first university to successfully defend their title? Or will one of the other two universities take the overall lead in the series? To find out more about the event, and to book your place, please click here.
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